2009 Penn State Recruiting Barometer

[PSU42Fan]

This will be updated on a weekly basis. All players listed have been tendered written offers unless otherwise noted. Recent updates on players are indicated in red. Players who have made officials visits in bold.

In The Bag - Committed (99% - thank you Michael Shaw)
Arcidiacono, Mark (OL) - committed 4/30/08
Cadogan, Nate (OL) - committed 7/11/08
Carson, Glenn (LB) - committed 9/27/08
Drake, Curtis (ATH) - committed 6/9/08
Dukes, Curtis (RB) - committed 7/2/08
Felder, Brandon (WR) - committed 5/27/08
Fera, Anthony (K) - committed 10/22/08 (early enrollee)
Figueroa, Frank (OL) - committed 5/15/08
Gilliam, Garry (TE/DE) - committed 11/13/08
Givens, Darrell (DB) - committed 5/10/08 - no visits, okay, Darrell?
Gress, Adam (OL) - committed 7/2/08
Hill, Jordan (DL) - committed 1/3/09
Hodges, Gerald (DB) - committed 12/12/08 (early enrollee)
Howle, Ty (OL) - committed 3/24/08 (early enrollee)
Kersey, Shawney (WR) - committed 1/17/09
Kuntz, Chris (ATH) - committed 7/4/08
Morris, Stephon (DB) - committed 5/24/08
Newsome, Kevin (QB) - committed 12/16/08 (early enrollee)
Obeng-Agyapong, Stephen (DB) - committed 5/10/08
Stanley, Sean (DL) - committed 5/27/08
Shrive, Eric (OL) - committed 5/15/08
Smith, Devon (WR) - committed 9/28/08
Thomas, Derrick (ATH) - committed 5/12/08
Urschel, John (OL/DL) - committed 1/17/09
Willis, Malcolm (DB) - committed 4/29/08

Excellent - leading and/or expected verbal (60-80%)
Brown, Justin (WR) -

Good - Top 3-5 with no favorite (30-50%)
Jenkins, Jelani (LB) - visit went very well

Fair - Top 10 and has some interest (10-25%)
Collins, Lanford (DL) - reportedly enjoyed official visit on 12/13 (according to ESPN)
Noel, Jim (DB) - recent BC decommit...possible visit 1/23

Poor - little to no interest (0-10%)
Boyd, Tahj (QB) - West Virginia AND Tennessee decommit...Oregon/Ohio State battle
Davis, Jonathan (LB/S) - South Carolina gave him the boot (real classy)...verbal offer
Evans, Joshua (ATH) - Florida lean
Freeman, Chris (OL) - Trotwood kid...verbal offer?
Holmes, Isaac (DL) - PSU trailing Florida, Maryland and Pitt...wants early PT
Mason, Dan (LB) - likely headed to Pitt
White, Peter (OL) - PSU not in Top 5...UT/MD

Committed Elsewhere
Forcier, Tate (QB) - Michigan
Murray, Aaron (QB) - Georgia
Newton, Morgan (QB) - Kentucky
Reed, Jordan (QB) - Florida (verbal offer?)
Austin, Tavon (RB) - West Virginia
Marrow, Mike (RB) - Alabama
Riddick, Theo (RB) - Notre Dame
Wallace, Dominique (RB) - Virginia
Wegher, Brandon (RB) - Iowa
Wilson, David (RB) - Virginia Tech
Clark, Jaleel (WR) - Missouri (verbal offer?)
Fields, Chris (WR) - Ohio State
Heastie, Logan (WR) - West Virginia
McNeal, BrYce (WR) - Clemson
Stokes, JeRon (WR) - Tennessee (soft verbal...may visit on 1/30)
Thomas, Todd (WR) - Pitt
Watkins, Tyree (WR) - Virginia
Arthur Lynch/Fontaine (TE) - Georgia
Thomas, Logan (TE) - Virginia Tech
Longo, Sam (OL) - Ohio State
Nixon, Xavier (OL) - Florida
Schofield, Michael (OL) - Michigan
Watt, Chris (OL) - Notre Dame
Williams, Brennan (OL) - North Carolina
Ankrah, Jason (DL) - Nebraska
Arnett, DeOnte (DL) - Maryland
Drummond, Craig (DL) - Illinois
Hill, Will (DL) - Virginia
LaLota, Anthony (DL) - Michigan
Muldoon, Pat (DL) - Wisconsin
Randolph, Raynard (DL) - NC State
Roh, Craig (DL) - Michigan
Snyder, Jake (DL) - Virginia
Stephens, Terrence (DL) - Stanford
Stockton, Tyler (DL) - Notre Dame
Bell, Dorian (LB) - Ohio State
Clark, Telvion (LB) - Virginia Tech
Brown, Corey (DB) - Ohio State
Love, Jordan (DB) - Georgia
Smith, Abdul (DB) - Rutgers
Wood, Jamie (DB) - Ohio State
Exum, Antone (ATH) - Virginia Tech
Gilmore, Stephon (ATH) - South Carolina
Hall, Jordan (ATH) - Ohio State
Hawkins, Travis (ATH) - Maryland (maybe not...)
Oliver, Nyisher (ATH) - Notre Dame

Committed from Class of 2010
Hull, Mike (LB) - committed 11/22/08
Jones, Paul (QB) - committed 1/17/09

[AustinScottistheone]

Nice...I have to admit though, it does sting to see Tate Forcier under "fair". Definitely a reality check that is for sure, QB recruiting in '08 is going to be scary to follow.

[reigle9]

I think it's a little conservative but that's probably for the best in recruiting.

[PSU42Fan]

Originally Posted by AustinScottistheone

Nice...I have to admit though, it does sting to see Tate Forcier under "fair". Definitely a reality check that is for sure, QB recruiting in '08 is going to be scary to follow.

As far as Forcier is concerned, I have to wait until he starts making visits before I upgrade him to "Good". I have a feeling we'll get a visit, but it's too soon for me to put him in that category.

Reigle, we have all learned to be a tad conservative, haven't we?

[Undercover Brother]

Originally Posted by PSU42Fan

Back again in its second year...

This will be updated every 7-10 days. First posting 5/13/08.

In The Bag - Committed (99% - thank you Michael Shaw)
Arcidiacono, Mark (OL)
Givens, Darrell (DB)
Howle, Ty (OL)
Obeng-Agyapong, Stephen (DB)
Thomas, Derrick (DB)
Willis, Malcolm (DB)

Excellent - leading and/or expected verbal (60-80%)
Clark, Jaleel (WR)
Hodges, Gerald (DB)
Morris, Stephon (DB)

Good - Top 3-5 with no favorite (30-50%)
Austin, Tavon (RB)
Brown, Justin (WR)
Carson, Glenn (LB)
Drake, Curtis (ATH)
Hawkins, Travis (ATH)
Jenkins, Jelani (LB)
Love, Jordan (DB)
Mason, Dan (LB)
Smith, Abdul (DB)

Fair - Top 10 and has some interest (10-25%)
Arnett, DeOnte (DL)
Forcier, Tate (QB)
Marrow, Mike (ATH)
Stanley, Sean (DL)
Thomas, Todd (WR)
Wegher, Brandon (RB)
White, Peter (OL)
Williams, Brennan (OL)

Poor - little to no interest (0-10%)
Brown, Corey (DB)
Collins, Lanford (DL)
Drummond, Craig (DL)
Exum, Antone (QB)
Freeman, Chirs (OL)
Gilmore, Stephon (DB)
LaLota, Anthony (OL/DL)
Muldoon, Pat (DL)
Newton, Morgan (QB)
Nixon, Xavier (OL)
Powell, Carvin (WR)
Roh, Craig (DL)
Shrive, Eric (OL)

Possible Offers
Alston, Shawne (RB)
Cadogan, Nate (OL/DL)
Oliver, Nyisher (ATH)
Powell, Carvin (WR)

Committed Elsewhere
Murray, Aaron (QB) - Georgia
Newsome, Kevin (QB) - Michigan
Riddick, Theo (RB) - Notre Dame
Wallace, Dominique (RB) - Virginia
Heastie, Logan (WR) - West Virginia
Stokes, Je'Ron (WR) - Tennessee
Stephens, Terrence (DL) - Stanford
Stockton, Tyler (DL) - Notre Dame
Bell, Dorian (LB) - Ohio State
Wood, Jamie (DB) - Ohio State
Hall, Jordan (ATH) - Ohio State

I was waiting for this for awhile 42.

I would move Dan Mason; Justin Brown and Tavon Austin to excellent - especially the first two now. When Porzel verbals to WVU, then move Austin to Excellent. PSU in top 2 for Carson and I wouldn't be shocked if we move Hawkins to the excellent grouping soon.

I'd move Exum to fair ... Alston and Cadogen have the offers now.

JMOs

[PSU42Fan]

Wow. I'm the conservative one now. I have a feeling the recruits you mentioned will be moving up soon...just don't want to get too far ahead of myself.

Funny...last night Stern and company were ripping my ass and calling me a "kool-aider".

I'll be adding comments soon...

[FrankBooth]

From a psychological point of view, being "conservative" here is probably a good thing because it may actually eliminate an optimistic bias that naturally comes from being a fan. Furthermore, judgments about the chances of landing recruits still on the board tend to become more positive after a pleasant surprise such as Givens committing; similarly judgments tend to become more pessimistic after bad news such as the Gateway kids having no interest in PSU. Just go to the Audibles message board to see wild extremes of both.

So to an unbiased outside observer these estimates probably look objective. Keep it up!

[FrankBooth]

Poor - little to no interest (0-10%)
Brown, Corey (DB)
Collins, Lanford (DL)
Drummond, Craig (DL)
Exum, Antone (QB)
Freeman, Chirs (OL)
Gilmore, Stephon (DB)
LaLota, Anthony (OL/DL)
Muldoon, Pat (DL)
Newton, Morgan (QB)
Nixon, Xavier (OL)
Powell, Carvin (WR)
Roh, Craig (DL)
Shrive, Eric (OL)

Not to rag on ya, 42, but this is the once in 10 or 20 times when the kid turns around and surprises everyone. Like you, I hadn't seen any indication that Shrive had a shred of interest in PSU except for maybe the chance of a visit in the near future after previously bypassing PSU on his trips to South Bend and elsewhere.

So, in terms of probabilities your assessment was fine, but there are always statistical outlyers. And in this case I'm sure we're both thrilled about the outlyer.

heh

[PSU42Fan]

Well, you agreed with my original assessment, so you can't be ragging on me.

I had Shrive as "Fair" on my personal board a month or so ago, but not until recently did he give any indications that he was seriously considering PSU. That combined with ND's recruiting power and Zook's $ had me thinking he was heading elsewhere.

This is one of those cases where I don't mind being wrong.

[reigle9]

I prefer my crow with hot sauce and it taste pretty good.

[Undercover Brother]

Originally Posted by FrankBooth

Not to rag on ya, 42, but this is the once in 10 or 20 times when the kid turns around and surprises everyone. Like you, I hadn't seen any indication that Shrive had a shred of interest in PSU except for maybe the chance of a visit in the near future after previously bypassing PSU on his trips to South Bend and elsewhere.

So, in terms of probabilities your assessment was fine, but there are always statistical outlyers. And in this case I'm sure we're both thrilled about the outlyer.

heh

99.9% of PSU fans, including myself, thought Shrive was a lost cause. I can't fault 42 for putting him as low.

[FrankBooth]

Originally Posted by PSU42Fan

This is one of those cases where I don't mind being wrong.

Actually, I'm saying that you were exactly right in expressing the chances as low based on the info available. A low chance is still a chance, and occasionally we'll get good news from the population of kids lumped in any category. If not Shrive, then maybe another kid in the "poor" category would commit.

Unfortunately, the reverse is also true so over the long haul some of the kids labeled "Excellent" should be expected to commit elsewhere. Based on the probabilities defining your categories, you already expect that to happen at 20% - 40% of the time. So say if one in 4 goes elsewhere, you will be exactly right then too. You'd only be wrong if PSU whiffs on more than 40%, or starts landing most of the kids labeled "poor".

Hey, I'm a stats geek so I was just pointing out you were right before someone else tried saying you were wrong. Again, I'm talking about how we should expect a surprise given all the kids in each category -- this is almost meaningless when looking at individuals because an 80% chance that Jaleel Clark will commit doesn't mean that 80% of him will enrol, but he may go elsewhere while all the others should commit.

I'll also get really geeky and suggest that your 99% probability for commits is too high -- going back to the '03 class we've seen Jason Evans, Steve Quinn and Michael Shaw decommit (that's all I can remember) out of 116 total commits including them, so that is closer to a 97% probability of signing the LOI.

Anyway, keep up the good work!

[Undercover Brother]

42,

Justin Brown still not in excellent grouping? Don't make me have to tell you I told you so.

Feel really good about this one. He has been to Happy Valley several times already and is supposedly coming back for Senior Camp. I bet he ends it that weekend.

[PSU42Fan]

Brother - I agree with your sentiments, and I am hoping you have heard something "inside" to back it up. Remember, though, the name of the game is being conservative. "I've been in love too many times before..."

[PennStateAlum]

PSU42,

Any new updates to the Recruiting Barometer? I look forward to your updates.