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05-13-2008, 09:11 PM
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2009 Penn State Recruiting Barometer
This will be updated every 7-10 days. All players listed have been tendered written offers unless otherwise noted.
In The Bag - Committed (99% - thank you Michael Shaw  )Arcidiacono, Mark (OL) - committed 4/30/08 Cadogan, Nate (OL) - committed 7/11/08 Drake, Curtis (ATH) - committed 6/9/08 Dukes, Curtis (RB) - committed 7/2/08 Felder, Brandon (WR) - committed 5/27/08 Figueroa, Frank (OL) - committed 5/15/08 Givens, Darrell (DB) - committed 5/10/08 Gress, Adam (OL) - committed 7/2/08 Howle, Ty (OL) - committed 3/24/08 Kuntz, Chris (ATH) - committed 7/4/08 Morris, Stephon (DB) - committed 5/24/08 Obeng-Agyapong, Stephen (DB) - committed 5/10/08 Stanley, Sean (DL) - committed 5/27/08 Shrive, Eric (OL) - committed 5/15/08 Thomas, Derrick (ATH) - apparently is sticking with Penn State (for now) Willis, Malcolm (DB) - committed 4/29/08 Excellent - leading and/or expected verbal (60-80%) Brown, Justin (WR) - has declared PSU his leader Smith, Devon (WR) - says he will take visits before deciding... Good - Top 3-5 with no favorite (30-50%) Ankrah, Jason (DL) - was on verge of committing, but apparently we already have two DE's  Gilliam, Gary (ATH) - big man just received PSU offer...PSU could be early leader Jenkins, Jelani (LB) - PSU and Stanford stand out early Newsome, Kevin (QB) - recently opened up his recruitment Fair - Top 10 and has some interest (10-25%) Austin, Tavon (RB) - appears PSU may be slipping...favoring WVU? Carson, Glenn (LB) - slight Rutgers lean Collins, Lanford (DL) - PSU in Top 4 (likely 4th) Evans, Joshua (ATH) - claims he was offered in May...also says he is wide open Forcier, Tate (QB) - Newsome's decommit = Forcier to Michigan? Hawkins, Travis (ATH) - will visit for the PSU-Michigan game...PSU in Top 4 Holmes, Isaac (DL) - recently visited campus LaLota, Anthony (OL/DL) - seems to have had a good visit...PSU may get an official visit  ...where is the crow eating emoticon?Mason, Dan (LB) - Pitt is his leader...may take official to PSU Randolph, Raynard (DL) - Malcolm Willis says PSU is in his Top 2 (MD leading) Poor - little to no interest (0-10%) Davis, Jonathan (LB/S) - staying down south Drummond, Craig (DL) - no interest in PSU whatsoever Exum, Antone (QB) - teammate of Jordan Love...VA Tech Freeman, Chris (OL) - Trotwood kid...I (and Lex) still question if the offer is written...Michigan/Florida Gilmore, Stephon (ATH) - favoring Tennessee Muldoon, Pat (DL) - PSU not in Top 4 (Cincinnati?) Nixon, Xavier (OL) - PSU not in Top 9 (Clemson) Roh, Craig (DL) - again, why did we offer? (USC) Thomas, Todd (WR) - likely headed to Pitt (apparently "The Wall" is kind to non-qualifiers) White, Peter (OL) - PSU not in Top 5...Tennessee leading Williams, Brennan (OL) - PSU not in Top 6...BC/Virginia/Michigan Committed Elsewhere Murray, Aaron (QB) - Georgia Newton, Morgan (QB) - Kentucky Reed, Jordan (QB) - Florida (verbal offer?) Marrow, Mike (RB) - Alabama Riddick, Theo (RB) - Notre Dame Wallace, Dominique (RB) - Virginia Wegher, Brandon (RB) - Iowa Wilson, David (RB) - Virginia Tech Clark, Jaleel (WR) - Missouri (verbal offer?) Fields, Chris (WR) - Ohio State Heastie, Logan (WR) - West Virginia Stokes, Je'Ron (WR) - Tennessee Watkins, Tyree (WR) - Virginia (soft verbal) Longo, Sam (OL) - Ohio State Schofield, Michael (OL) - Michigan Watt, Chris (OL) - Notre Dame Arnett, DeOnte (DL) - Maryland Snyder, Jake (DL) - Virginia Stephens, Terrence (DL) - Stanford Stockton, Tyler (DL) - Notre Dame Bell, Dorian (LB) - Ohio State Clark, Telvion (LB) - Virginia Tech Brown, Corey (DB) - Ohio State Hodges, Gerald (DB) - Rutgers (soft verbal) Love, Jordan (DB) - Georgia Noel, Jim (DB) - Boston College Smith, Abdul (DB) - Rutgers Wood, Jamie (DB) - Ohio State Hall, Jordan (ATH) - Ohio State Oliver, Nyisher (ATH) - Tennessee Fera, Anthony (K) - Michigan
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Last edited by PSU42Fan : 08-24-2008 at 01:54 PM.         
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05-13-2008, 10:05 PM
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Nice...I have to admit though, it does sting to see Tate Forcier under "fair". Definitely a reality check that is for sure, QB recruiting in '08 is going to be scary to follow.
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"Yesterday I didn't think this event was getting enough press," said Paterno, who was the keynote speaker at Friday's affair. "I decided to go to the hospital and see if I could spruce it up a bit. I feel good."
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05-13-2008, 10:36 PM
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Reigle, we have all learned to be a tad conservative, haven't we? 
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05-13-2008, 10:54 PM
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I would move Dan Mason; Justin Brown and Tavon Austin to excellent - especially the first two now. When Porzel verbals to WVU, then move Austin to Excellent. PSU in top 2 for Carson and I wouldn't be shocked if we move Hawkins to the excellent grouping soon. I'd move Exum to fair ... Alston and Cadogen have the offers now. JMOs
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05-13-2008, 11:06 PM
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Wow. I'm the conservative one now. I have a feeling the recruits you mentioned will be moving up soon...just don't want to get too far ahead of myself.
Funny...last night Stern and company were ripping my ass and calling me a "kool-aider". I'll be adding comments soon...
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05-14-2008, 04:37 PM
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From a psychological point of view, being "conservative" here is probably a good thing because it may actually eliminate an optimistic bias that naturally comes from being a fan. Furthermore, judgments about the chances of landing recruits still on the board tend to become more positive after a pleasant surprise such as Givens committing; similarly judgments tend to become more pessimistic after bad news such as the Gateway kids having no interest in PSU. Just go to the Audibles message board to see wild extremes of both.
So to an unbiased outside observer these estimates probably look objective. Keep it up!
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05-15-2008, 12:15 PM
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So, in terms of probabilities your assessment was fine, but there are always statistical outlyers. And in this case I'm sure we're both thrilled about the outlyer. heh
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05-15-2008, 12:24 PM
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Well, you agreed with my original assessment, so you can't be ragging on me.
I had Shrive as "Fair" on my personal board a month or so ago, but not until recently did he give any indications that he was seriously considering PSU. That combined with ND's recruiting power and Zook's $ had me thinking he was heading elsewhere. This is one of those cases where I don't mind being wrong. 
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05-15-2008, 07:27 PM
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05-16-2008, 12:03 PM
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Unfortunately, the reverse is also true so over the long haul some of the kids labeled "Excellent" should be expected to commit elsewhere. Based on the probabilities defining your categories, you already expect that to happen at 20% - 40% of the time. So say if one in 4 goes elsewhere, you will be exactly right then too. You'd only be wrong if PSU whiffs on more than 40%, or starts landing most of the kids labeled "poor". Hey, I'm a stats geek so I was just pointing out you were right before someone else tried saying you were wrong. Again, I'm talking about how we should expect a surprise given all the kids in each category -- this is almost meaningless when looking at individuals because an 80% chance that Jaleel Clark will commit doesn't mean that 80% of him will enrol, but he may go elsewhere while all the others should commit. I'll also get really geeky and suggest that your 99% probability for commits is too high -- going back to the '03 class we've seen Jason Evans, Steve Quinn and Michael Shaw decommit (that's all I can remember) out of 116 total commits including them, so that is closer to a 97% probability of signing the LOI. Anyway, keep up the good work! Last edited by FrankBooth : 05-16-2008 at 12:15 PM.
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