Who Is the Real Culprit in the South Bend Massacre?

[LordJeffBuck]

In 2007, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame have looked more like the Seventh Cavalry of Little Big Horn, having been slaughtered by the likes of Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State by a combined score of 133 to 27. With Purdue, UCLA, Boston College, and Southern Cal (combined record of 14-1 entering week five action) on the horizon, the blood letting could get even worse in the upcoming weeks before the Little Indians begin to ride into town. An 0 for 8 start is beginning to seem like a very real possibility for Notre Dame, and even the "cupcakes" at the end of the table (Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford) seem a little less appetizing than they did a few weeks ago.

There is no question that the historic Notre Dame football program is in a shambles right now, but the question remains: Just who is resonsible for the South Bend Massacre? Conventional wisdom from Irish fans states that former head coach Tyrone Willingham is the culprit here. The specific complaint from the South Bend faithful is that Willingham simply couldn't recruit, and as evidence in support of this proposition the Domer homers cite the recruiting classes of 2003 and 2004, the last two classes of the abortive Willingham regime.

However, even after a cursory glance at those two classes, the fans' claims appear to be specious, especially with regard to the class of 2003. That 21-man classes was ranked the 12th-best in the nation by Rivals, and 5th by Scout. A closer look reveals that the class of 2003 was actually one of Notre Dame's better recruiting hauls in recent years, as it produced such current and former stars as quarterback Brady Quinn (2006 Maxwell Award winner; ND career leader in passing yards and TD's); wide receiver Jeff Samardzija (ND career leader in receptions, yards, and TD's); defensive end Victor Abiamiri (127 tackles, 40 TFL's, 21 sacks for career; 2nd-round darft choice); center John Sullivan (2007 pre-season All American; Outland and Rimington watch lists); tight end John Carlson (2006 All American and Mackey Award finalist; 2007 pre-season All American; team captain); and defensive back Tom Zbilkowski (2007 pre-season All American; Bednarik, Nagurski, and Lott watch lists; team captain).

Notre Dame's 17-man class of 2004 was noticeably weaker than its predecessor, but it was still ranked a respectable 32nd-best by Rivals, and 30th by Scout. Even though Notre Dame fell out of the Top 20 in the annual recruiting sweepstakes, the Irish still finished ahead of many national powers such as UCLA (#34 according to Rivals), South Carolina (#35), Wisconsin (#39), Virginia Tech (#41), West Virginia (#47), Clemson (#53), Georgia Tech (#56), and Louisville (#64). That "mediocre" class of 2004 produced such talented players as running back Darius Walker (3,249 yards rushing, 816 yards receiving, 26 TD's in his career); linebacker Maurice Crum, Jr. (the #18 linebacker in the nation according to Phil Steele; Bednarik, Nagurski, and Lott watch lists; team captain); and defensive back Terrail Lambert (the #31 cornerback in the country according to Phil Steele).

The even more specific complaint from Domer fans is that, during his last two recruiting classes combined (2003 and 2004), Willingham brought in "only" eight 4-star prospects and one 5-star prospect. During those same two recruiting classes, the Domers also signed twenty-one 3-star prospects and seven 2-star prospects (using Rivals rankings). That's a total of thirty-seven recruits, with an average "star" rating of 3.08 - not great, perhaps, but certainly not the bottom of the barrel, either. As mentioned above, many of those those thirty-seven recruits have had very successful careers at Notre Dame.

Now, I must admit that Ty Willingham's final two recruiting classes were not "elite" by any stretch of the imagination, and that other traditional powerhouses like Southern Cal, Texas, Michigan, LSU, Florida, Florida State, and Miami all performed at a higher level. But are a couple of good-but-not-great recruiting classes enough to ruin a college football juggernaut like Notre Dame? Are a handful of 2- and 3-star players the sole reason that the Fighting Irish can't even perform gridiron basics like blocking, tackling, snapping, and lining up in the right formation? Did Tyrone Willingham leave the cupboard so bare that Notre Dame can't even be competetive against mid-level teams three full years after his departure from South Bend? Sorry, I just don't buy it.

And here's why I don't buy it. During those same two years that Ty Willingham was allegedly visiting every golf course in northern Indiana instead of visiting every recruit on the Rivals100 list, the fifty-one non-BCS schools signed a combined seventeen 4-star prospects and one 5-star prospect. Yes, that's a grand total of one hundred and two recruiting classes that yielded just eighteen prospects who graded out higher than 3-stars. And none of those fifty-one schools had Ty Willingham at the helm to hinder their recruiting efforts. Hard to believe....

By way of comparison, if Willingham would have had one hundred and two recruiting classes as "bad" as his last two at Notre Dame, then he would have signed a total of eight hundred and sixteen 4-star prospects and fifty-one 5-star prospects, which as you can see is somewhat better than the combined efforts of all of the mid-majors of college football were actually able to produce in the same number of classes.

Every other recruit signed by those fifty-one non-BCS schools - you know, the directional schools, the hyphenated schools, the service academies, the traditional whipping boys of college football - graded out at two stars or less. For those of you who like numbers, that's 2,015 recruits, or an average of thirty-nine-and-a-half "bad" recruits per school. But Notre Dame has talent issues because of Ty Willingham's two allegedly weak recruiting classes with seven 2-star prospects? Surely, you can't be serious....

To go a bit further, the entire 13-team MAC signed a combined fifteen 3-star prospects and one 4-star prospect...

The entire 8-team Sun Belt Conference signed a combined twenty-one 3-star prospects and two 4-star prospects...

And the entire 9-team WAC signed a combined thirty-one 3-star prospects and two 4-star prospects.

During 2003 and 2004, the following ten teams did not sign a single recruit with a ranking of greater than 2-stars: Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Ohio University, UTEP, Idaho, Louisiana-Monroe, Army, and Navy. Another dozen teams - Air Force, Akron, Arkansas State, Central Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Toldeo, Western Michigan, and Wyoming - signed only one or two recruits with a ranking of greater than 2-stars. Those twenty-two teams signed a combined eighteen 3-star prospects and two 4-star prospects, to go along with an additional 870 "unworthy" prospects who graded out at 2-stars or less. I wonder if fans of any of those programs would call Tyrone Willingham a "lousy" recruiter.

One of those teams that completely whiffed on three-star prospects was Ball State, a traditional MAC cellar-dweller. Ball State recently traveled to Lincoln to do battle with those Big Twelve bad boys from Nebraska. Although everyone expected a blow-out of epic proportions, the lowly Cardinals woulda, coulda, shoulda beaten the mighty Cornhuskers, but a dropped touchdown pass and a missed field goal as the fourth-quarter wound down spoiled the upset bid. Nevertheless, Ball State did gash the vaunted Blackshirts defense for 40 points and 610 yards of total offense. How would Notre Dame have fared in the same situation? Before you answer that, keep in mind that the Domer offense has scored only 20 points and gained just 548 yards through the first four games of the 2007 season.

Boise State, the team that went 13-0 last year including a win in a BCS bowl game (something that Notre Dame has never done, despite the more-or-less automatic bid), had a grand total of four 3-star recruits and forty-two 2-star recruits combined for the classes of 2003 and 2004. The current cream of the WAC, Hawaii, managed to work its way into the top 25 with only seven 3-star prospects and thirty-five 2-star prospects from the recruiting classes at issue here.

College football fans expect Sun Belt and MAC teams to sign lesser recruits, but "bad" recruiting classes are by no means exclusive to the gridiron patsies. The University of Cincinnati, currently in the Big East Conference, has a national reputation and a nice recruiting base in the talent-rich state of Ohio. However, Cincinnati signed only a pair of 3-star recruits during the two years in question (2003 and 2004), and zero 4- or 5-star recruits during that time. Yet the "untalented" Bearcats are currently ranked 24th in the nation after somehow managing to win their first four games of the 2007 season, including a 34-3 annihilation of Oregon State, a solid PAC-10 program. (The Beavers beat Southern Cal year, remember? And Notre Dame lost to Southern Cal by twenty points last season....).

Even the highly-touted SEC has teams that can't recruit well, despite all of that Southern Speed floating around down there. For the recruiting classes of 2003 and 2004, the University of Kentucky signed just two 4-star prospects, nineteen 3-star prospects, twenty-eight 2-star prospects, and one of those dreaded 0-star prospects (some kid from Mililani, Hawaii). While Kentucky's two classes were certainly not total washouts like Cincinnati's, they were far less heralded than Notre Dame's. By the way, the Wildcats are currently 4-0 on the season and ranked 14th in nation after having beaten Louisville and Arkansas in back-to-back weeks.

And finally, sometimes even the traditional "football powerhouses" have an off year when it comes to recruiting. It is always difficult to predict how high school players will perform at the college level, but in 2003, the Ohio State Buckeyes suffered through the perfect storm. That year, Ohio State's class was unusually small to begin with (just fourteen signees, seven of whom were rated 3-stars and seven of whom were 4-stars). At the time, Rivals ranked the Buckeyes' haul just the 41st-best in the country, far behind Notre Dame's effort. Although five of Ohio State's signees had successful college careers (Donte Whitner, Ashton Youboty, Anthony Gonzalez, David Patterson, and Kirk Barton), the other nine barely saw the field and all of them left the program early due to academics, legal matters, and/or career-ending injuries; only Barton still remains on the team as a fifth-year senior. Now, can Fighting Irish fans honestly compare their team's recruiting class of 2003 to Ohio State's train wreck? In fact, I don't think that the Domers could identify any Notre Dame recruiting class that was nearly as bad as Ohio State's phenomenally poor effort of 2003. Yet the Buckeyes have prospered on the field despite that class, having finished 11-2 in 2005 (4th in the nation) and 12-1 in 2006 (2nd in the nation); in 2007, with virtually no senior leadership, the Buckeyes are undefeated through four games, are ranked in the top ten, and are solidly in contention for a Big Ten title and a possible national championship bid.

And yet Notre Dame is the worst team in college football in 2007 because Ty Willingham couldn't recruit?

If the cupboard is bare in South Bend, it is largely the fault of Willingham's replacement, the rotund, orotund Charlie Weis. In his first two seasons at the helm, Weis rode an excellent quarterback (Brady Quinn, a Willingham recruit), a very good wide receiver (Jeff Samardzija, again a Willingham recruit), a decent running back (Darius Walker, yet another Willingham recruit), and a cupcake schedule to a combined 19-6 record. But, even with one of the most talented signal callers in Irish history, Weis's teams lost every big game, usually in spectacular fashion. Now Weis is without his best players - the ones whom Willingham recruited and developed - and the situation is an unmitigated disaster.

Since taking over the head coaching position at Notre Dame, Weis already has three recruiting classes under his overly-large belt, and far more than half the players on the current roster are his own recruits. During those three years (2005, 2006, and 2007), Charlie has signed sixty-one high school players (three 5-stars, twenty-four 4-stars, thirty 3-stars, and four 2-stars). Folks, that's quite a bit of talent, at least on paper. But somehow, Weis, a self-proclaimed offensive genius who has openly boasted about being able to out-scheme the opposition with his NFL-style formations and plays, has been unable to develop all of that talent or put his players in a position to be successful on the field (much less to actually win a game).

I know that it can be difficult for a head coach to turn a program around, but with all of its advantages - including a storied history, an exclusive television contract, and a national recruiting base - Weis should already have the ship headed in the right direction. In the past decade, five coaches have taken their teams to a national championship in three years or less - Michigan's Lloyd Carr (1997, third year); Oklahoma's Bob Stoops (2000, second year); Miami's Larry Coker (2001, first year); Ohio State's Jim Tressel (2002, second year); and Florida's Urban Meyer (2006, second year).

The bottom line is this: Talent is not the issue in South Bend. Notre Dame has brought in plenty of talent, both during Ty Willingham's tenure and after his departure, but the current coaching staff has been completely unable to develop that talent to a level necessary to compete at the major college level. In fact, the current staff fared much better with the players who were developed by the former staff rather than with their own players.

And finally, is Charlie Weis losing his team? Weis has always had the reputation of being an overbearing, pompous ass who publically brags about his own accomplishments (the four Super Bowl rings), and berates and belittles his players (Darius Walker comes immediately to mind, but there have been many others). Of course, almost everyone can tolerate an overbearing, pompous ass when he is winning, but when the losses start to pile up, the band wagon begins to empty out pretty quickly. After four weeks, three Notre Dame players have already quit the team (opening day starting quarterback Demetrius Jones, tight end Konrad Reuland, and lineman Chris Stewart). By the way, each of those three players was a Charlie Weis recruit, so no can claim that Weis isn't resonating with the Willingham hold-evers. Right now, Weis isn't resonating with anybody, and that is the overly-large shadow which is currently looming over Notre Dame's once-proud program.

So, how much longer will it be before this Hinderberg crashes in flames? Probably until the last Willingham recruit leaves South Bend, and then the excuses will finally be over. And so will Notre Dame's reputation of being a major football power. And Weis will be back in the NFL, leaving some other coach to clean up his mess and attempt to rebuild a program that has been in serious decline for the past two decades (which, by the way, was long before Tyrone Willingham ever set foot on campus).

I wonder if they believe in karma under the Golden Dome?

[LordJeffBuck]

It's now official - Notre Dame is 0 and 5, and the Irish are well on their way to their worst season since the Hugh J. Devore era. By the way, that would be 1963, for those of you who've never heard of that South Bend legend. Incidentally, Mr. Devore lasted exactly one season in South Bend, posting a 2-7 record before being ousted by Ara Parseghian, who returned the Irish to glory in short order, winning 25 of his first 30 games and a national championship in his third year on the job.

[stxbuck]

Weis can win w/ other guys players, and when the talent levels are even. That is why he did a good job in the NFL-unlike HS, where kids sign w/ Idaho or NE Louisiana for any # of reasons-and then develop into studs-the NFL WILL find every badass player out there even if it means turning over rocks in Boone,NC or Rolla,Missouri-which it often does. Weiss didn't have to scout or develop players-he probably had some input into drafting, but he looked at the guys the scouts brought to his attention-he didn't have to put any effort into things himself.

[ElKabongNDN]

The class you listed as being ranked in the top 10 was Brady Quinn's class, just about all of which has already graduated and left the program. Notre Dame does not traditionally redshirt its freshmen. The class you listed as being barely top 30 has only seven players remaining from its original 16, and are the current seniors. You failed to list the class after that one, which was also recruited by Ty Willingham and was rated even lower than the top-30 class. There are only 13 players left from that class. That's two consecutive classes out of the top 25. Ask Tom Lemming what that's meant to the ND program. As of right now, Notre Dame has a total of 20 players that have been with the program more than one year going into this season, and the vast majority of them are three- to two-star players.. That doesn't translate to a lot of senior leadership. Weis is responsible for how the team performs, but I can't remember a team that skews so far towards true sophomores and freshmen in 30 years of watching college football.

[ElKabongNDN]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

It's now official - Notre Dame is 0 and 5, and the Irish are well on their way to their worst season since the Hugh J. Devore era. By the way, that would be 1963, for those of you who've never heard of that South Bend legend. Incidentally, Mr. Devore lasted exactly one season in South Bend, posting a 2-7 record before being ousted by Ara Parseghian, who returned the Irish to glory in short order, winning 25 of his first 30 games and a national championship in his third year on the job.

Yes, Hugh Devore lasted one season. That was the intention, as he was an interim coach after Joe Kuharich unexpectedly left the program in the summer of 1963.

[LordJeffBuck]

Originally Posted by ElKabongNDN

You failed to list the class after that one, which was also recruited by Ty Willingham and was rated even lower than the top-30 class.

Sorry, that's Weis's class, as he was the man who signed the players. Jim Tressel had even less time to put together his 2001 recruiting class, and he won a national championship the very next year. Ditto for Urban Meyer in 2005. And Bob Stoops in 1999. And so on....

Remember, Weis lost some of Willingham's best 2005 recruits, including four-star defensive end Lawrence Wilson, who was starting at Ohio State prior to injuring his leg in the season opener; and four-star cornerback Brandon Harrison, who is in Michigan's two-deep.

If Weis really thought that the 2005 commitments that he inherited from Willingham were so bad, then he should have rescinded their scholarship offers and started from scratch. If the whole idea of hiring Weis was to let him rebuild the program in his own image over the long term, then I'm sure that the Notre Dame administration and alumni would have bought into that plan, however drastic it may have seemed at the time.

That's two consecutive classes out of the top 25.

Which means that Notre Dame still had better recruiting classes than 70+ other teams. Yet the Fighting Irish are easily one of the worst teams in the country right now? Sorry, can't blame the talent....

Over the past five recruiting classes, Notre Dame's average ranking was 20th in the nation; from 2003 to 2007, the Irish's classes were ranked (by Rivals) 12th, 32nd, 40th, 8th, and 8th, respectively. Notre Dame's current team is comprised solely of players from those five classes.

Here are the five-year averages for some of the teams that beat Notre Dame this season:

Penn State: 32nd (93rd, 14th, 25th, 6th, 24th)
Purdue: 38th (31st, 20th, 29th, 50th, 59th)
Michigan State: 38th (66th, 16th, 35th, 33rd, 42nd)
Georgia Tech: 49th (50th, 56th, 62nd, 58th, 18th)

So, how were those teams able to beat Notre Dame handily with such lousy recruiting classes? Of Notre Dame's first five opponents this season, only Michigan, whose classes ranked 11th on average (17th, 5th, 6th, 13th, and 12th), had clearly superior recruiting efforts. And lest we forget, Michigan lost to 1-AA Appalachian State, whose recruiting classes don't even show up on the radar, but pounded Notre Dame 38-0 (and the game wasn't even that close). Does little Appy State have more talent than mighty Notre Dame?

Here are a few more five-year averages for you to ponder:

Oregon: 25th (26th, 12th, 28th, 49th, 11th)
Virginia Tech: 29th (27th, 41st, 14th, 32nd, 29th)
Wisconsin: 37th (34th, 42nd, 33rd, 39th, 40th)
West Virginia: 40th (46th, 47th, 31st, 52nd, 23rd)
Louisville: 44th (35th, 64th, 45th, 34th, 41st)
Kentucky: 53rd (63rd, 45th, 67th, 36th, 54th)
South Florida: 64th (61st, 43rd, 50th, 59th, 58th)
Hawaii: 89th (83rd, 96th, 85th, 73rd, 108th)

As you can see, each of the above teams has had: (1) a worse five-year average than Notre Dame; (2) at least one recruiting class worse than Notre Dame's worst class (40th); and (3) no class as good as Notre Dame's best class (8th, which ND accomplished twice). Now, which of those eight teams would you like to play, exactly?

That doesn't translate to a lot of senior leadership.

Ohio State has exactly one fifth-year senior, and three other seniors, not counting walk-ons and former walk-ons. Now that's what you call lack of senior leadership. Would you care to play Ohio State right now?

By the way, Ohio State's five-year average was 18th, and its classes were ranked 41st, 9th, 12th, 12th, and 15th, from 2003 through 2007.

Weis is responsible for how the team performs, but I can't remember a team that skews so far towards true sophomores and freshmen in 30 years of watching college football.

Ohio State has 45 freshmen and sophomores on scholarship, 24 juniors, and the 4 aforementioned seniors. Thirteen of those freshmen and sophomores start. Ohio State has played eight true freshmen this season, out of a recruiting class of just fifteen. Is Notre Dame younger than that?

These days, teams have to re-load every year to stay on top, which means that freshmen and sophomores will receive lots of playing time. Ohio State, Southern Cal, and Florida are three excellent examples of teams that rely heavily on younger players, but all of the top teams do so. There is no reason why Charlie can't have his youngsters ready to play at this level.

Let's face it - in 2007, Charlie Weis has done less with more than any other head coach in the country. Maybe Weis doesn't have enough talent to compete for a national championship, but there is simply no way that his talent is so bad that it justifies the Irish being 0 and 5 on the season; having been out-scored 166 to 46; out-rushed 1,050 yards to 152 yards; and out-gained 1,779 yards to 974 yards.

Ask Tom Lemming what that's meant to the ND program.

If you want to believe Tom Lemming, then be my guest....

[BengalsAndBucks]

Also, LBJ didn't mention Florida. They only have 5 redshirt seniors, and 7 seniors on the roster. While their recruiting classes are ranked significantly higher than ND's (average 5.4), they are currently starting 11 freshmen or sophomores for a team that is 4-1. Also, they got significant contributions from 3 freshmen on last year's national championship team. ND's claimed lack of experience or talent is no more than any other school out there, yet they continue to underachieve. Way to go Fat Charlie.