Quote:
Originally Posted by PSU42Fan
This is one of those cases where I don't mind being wrong.  |
Actually, I'm saying that you were exactly right in expressing the chances as low based on the info available. A low chance is still a chance, and occasionally we'll get good news from the
population of kids lumped in any category. If not Shrive, then maybe another kid in the "poor" category would commit.
Unfortunately, the reverse is also true so over the long haul some of the kids labeled "Excellent"
should be expected to commit elsewhere. Based on the probabilities defining your categories, you already expect that to happen at 20% - 40% of the time. So say if one in 4 goes elsewhere, you will be exactly right then too. You'd only be wrong if PSU whiffs on more than 40%, or starts landing most of the kids labeled "poor".
Hey, I'm a stats geek so I was just pointing out you were right before someone else tried saying you were wrong. Again, I'm talking about how we should expect a surprise given all the kids in each category -- this is almost meaningless when looking at individuals because an 80% chance that Jaleel Clark will commit doesn't mean that 80% of him will enrol, but he may go elsewhere while all the others should commit.
I'll also get really geeky and suggest that your 99% probability for commits is too high -- going back to the '03 class we've seen Jason Evans, Steve Quinn and Michael Shaw decommit (that's all I can remember) out of 116 total commits including them, so that is closer to a 97% probability of signing the LOI.
Anyway, keep up the good work!